How well does modernisation theory explain the level of democracy-autocracy in China, Russia OR Germany between 1990 and 2020?

 

Instructions:

Assignment Question: How well does modernisation theory explain

the level of democracy-autocracy1 in China, Russia OR Germany

between 1990 and 2020?

1 Democracy and autocracy are measured on a single continuum in

the V-Dem database therefore you are also evaluating level of

autocracy in the country you choose to analyse.

Assignment task: In this exercise students will apply modernisation

theory to a single country case of their choice (China, Germany or

Russia). Students will use data from the V-Dem and World Values

Survey (WVS) websites to evaluate if the country’s levels of

modernisation, (independent variables, IVs), and its regime type

(dependent variable, DV) fit the expectations of the theory.

Specifically, each student will use the liberal democracy index from

the V-Dem database as a measure of regime type (democracy –

autocracy) in their chosen country (see Lindberg et al 2014). You

will then select two independent variables to measure your

country’s level of modernisation from the list of 4 choices below.

These IVs are related to different aspects of socio-economic and

cultural modernisation (see Wucherpfennig & Deutsch 2009). In the

essay you will need to justify your choices of modernisation

measures and why you think they are important to evaluate in your

particular country.

Once you have chosen your variables, you should use the online

tools in V-Dem to graph the level of democracy-autocracy in your

country as well as how this has changed over time from 1990 to

2019. You can then graph your chosen IVs using the V-Dem or, if

appropriate, the WVS databases over this same period to analyse

the extent to which your chosen IVs are congruent with

modernisation theory’s expectations. (For example, do growing

levels of GDP per capita during the 30 year period correlate with

growing levels of democracy in your country? Does the overall level

of education and/or wealth in the country during the period match

with the theory’s expected level of democracy-autocracy?)

Although you cannot establish, prove or disprove causation

definitively in this single case research design, an association

between your IVs and your DV lends insight into the potential of

modernisation theory to explain the regime type observed in the

period being analysed. Your single case study can thus serve as a

 

plausibility probe for the usefulness (or not) of modernisation theory

for explaining regime type in your country case.

Given the limitations of this analysis and modernisation theory itself,

we also ask you briefly to consider alternative explanations for the

regime type outcomes you observe in your country after you

present your analysis. Here you can use your knowledge of the

country case and other theories of democratisation to suggest

factors other than those associated with modernisation that may be

needed to explain the regime type in your country case and how the

political regime has evolved over the 30-year period. This section is

a thought exercise. You should NOT do additional online graphing

or empirical analysis in this section.

Choice of Variables:

Dependent variable (regime type):

V-Dem liberal democracy index (continuum autocracy to

democracy)

Independent variables (choose 2 measures of modernisation)

• Socio-economic modernisation variables (V-Dem):

◦ GDP per capita

◦ Education 15+

◦ Equal distribution of resources

• Culture modernisation variable (WVS)

◦ Emancipative values (labelled RESEMAVAL; related to

post-material values)

 

Writing up results in your essay: The essay should include the

following elements:

• Introduction:

◦ Which country case have you chosen? Why?

◦ Where does your country fall on the democracy-

autocracy continuum in the period under study?

◦ Which aspects of modernisation did you choose to

analyse?

◦ What did you find (briefly)?

 

• Identify variables and measures. What does the Liberal

Democracy Index measure? How does it measure level of

democracy-autocracy? Identify and justify the two measures of

modernisation (IVs) you have chosen for your analysis. Which

aspects of modernisation are you evaluating with your IVs?

Why are you applying these aspects to your case?

• Analysis: Discuss how well the observed patterns / trends in

the data fit theoretical expectations of modernisation theory.

You can use trends over time and/or levels of modernisation

and democracy-autocracy in the period.

• Identify alternative explanatory factors not included in your

analysis of modernisation theory above, which might help

to account for the level of democracy-autocracy observed in

your chosen country over the 30 year period.  You should draw

on theories of democratisation we covered in class (e.g.

presidential systems; elite pacts; international factors; other

cultural factors; resource curse) as well as your knowledge of

the country case from the course readings & lectures to

identify factors other than modernisation. You will only have

room to discuss 2-3 alternative factors. Try to highlight the

ones you think are most important for explaining your

particular country case.

• Conclude by restating your main findings and then by

reflecting on how well the data used in your analysis and the

single case research design help you to evaluate theory.

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